Tour de France Update: Post Stage 15

As the tour heads into the Alps, the riders receive their second rest day in Verbier, Switzerland. It's a much needed rest, after four of the five longest stages of the entire Tour (three over 200 km), as well as stage 15's mountain finish. Rinaldo Nocentini captured the yellow jersey on stage 7 and only relinquished it on Sunday's stage 15 to Alberto Contador, while Lance Armstrong, Contador's teammate on Astana, moved into second. On Friday, Team Columbia-HTC's George Hincapie came within 5 seconds of taking the yellow jersey himself after joining the strongest breakaway group in any stage of this tour yet. Here's an update on each of the Tour's individual competititions, starting with the white jersey - awarded to the best young rider in the GC standings - and ending with the yellow jersey, given to the champion.

White Jersey (best young rider)
Current leader: Andy Schleck (Team Saxo Bank)

Recap: Stage 15 saw the first transfer of the white jersey since Tony Martin (Team Columbia-HTC) took it from Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas) in stage 3, as Andy Schleck took the white jersey by finshing in second, a full minute and a half ahead of twelfth place Tony Martin. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) also leapfrogged Martin with a third place finish at 1:10 ahead of Martin. As it stands now, Schleck has a 25 second lead over Nibali and a 41 second lead over Martin. Despite losing the jersey in the third stage, Nibali's teammate Kreuziger is still hanging around at a bit over 2 minutes behind Nibali after finishing 11th, just seconds ahead of Martin, in stage 15. Nobody else is truly in striking distance, though two other riders are within six minutes of the leader - Brice Feillu (Agritubel) and Peter Velits (Team Milram).

Outlook: The favorite here has to be Andy Schleck. The Luxembourg National Champion is defending the white jersey he won last year, finishing 12th overall in the Tour de France. Nibali and Kreuziger are also used to being in this position - Nibali wore the white jersey last year, while Kreuziger finished in second place behind Schleck. Schleck, however, is not just the best climber of the bunch, but one of the best climbers in the entire Tour, as evidenced by his strong finish on stage 15. Kreuziger, Martin, and Nibali simply won't be able to keep up with him in the alps, and he'll cruise into Paris in white.

Polka-Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains)
Current Leader: Franco Pellizotti (Liquigas)

Recap: The Polka-Dot Jersey has been the most contested of the individual awards this year, with no fewer than 7 riders holding it on at least one stage. Alberto Contador (Astana) was the first rider to hold the jersey, but he now sits in 8th with 52 points. Unlike the white jersey, the landscape of the King of the Mountains competition is far different this year. In fact, of the six riders who wore polka-dots last year, only two have even scored mountain points this year - Sylvain Chavanel (Quick Step), 7th with 56 points, and Thomas Voeckler (Bbox Bouygues Telecom), 20th with 31 points. The winner last year - Bernhard Kohl - retired, David de la Fuente is not in this year's Tour, Sebastian Lang (Silence-Lotto) is riding but hasn't scored a mountain point, and Riccardo Ricco was banned for doping. Pellizotti leads by 8 points over the man he took the jersey from, Egoi Martinez (Euskatel-Euskadi). They have outpaced the rest of the field - Martinez has 101 points to third place Pierrick Fedrigo's 65 points. In fourth and fifth sit Brice Feillu and Christophe Kern (Cofidis le Credit en Ligne), the two riders who held the jersey before Martinez.

Outlook: The lead that Martinez and Pellizoti have built over their pursuers is nearly insurmountable. In fact, each rider has already scored more mountain points than the second place finishers last year (Carlos Sastre and Frank Schleck, both of Team Saxo Bank, who finished the Tour with 80 each - Sastre has since joined Cervelo). It is not inconceivable that they could be caught, as there are plenty of points to be had in the Alps, but even Alberto Contador is unlikely to pick up the 58 points he would need in order to pass Pellizotti - and that's assuming that Pellizotti and Martinez don't grab more points of their own. No, it is a safe bet that Pellizotti or Martinez is wearing polka dots in Paris, and my money is on Pellizotti, who is a very strong climber and has consistently performed well in the Giro d'Italia, which should prepare him for the upcoming Alps.

Green Jersey (Points Classification)
Current Leader: Thor Hushovd (Cervelo TestTeam)

Recap: Team Columbia-HTC's Mark Cavendish (GBR) and Thor Hushovd (NOR) are jockeying for the green jersey: Cavendish leads Hushovd in stages wins four to one, but Hushovd has the lead in the green jersey points, 218 to 200. The only rider other than Cavendish and Hushovd who has worn the green jersey was Fabian Cancellara (Team Saxo Bank) after stage 1.

Outlook: Cavendish and Hushovd won't be caught. There are simply not enough points available, and anyone even remotely close to them is, like Cavendish, a sprinter, and won't get points in the mountains. However, even though Cavendish is only 18 points behind Hushovd, it will be extremely difficult for him to pass the God of Thunder. There are only two flat stages left - stage 19 to Aubenas and stage 21 to Paris - and stage 19 ends with a category 2 mountain and a descent to the finish line - not the ideal stage for a sprint finish.

Yellow Jersey (General Classification)
Current Leader: Alberto Contador (Astana)

Recap: If you want to know who the contenders are to win the yellow jersey, and thus the Tour de France, look no further than the top of the stage 15 standings. The top eleven riders, with the exception of the surprising Bradley Wiggins (Garmin-Slipstream), were all considered threats to win the GC prior to the tour, including Alberto Contador (1st), Andy Schleck (2nd), Carlos Sastre (6th - Cervelo TestTeam), Cadel Evans (7th - Silence-Lotto), Lance Armstrong (9th), and Kim Kirchen (10th - Team Columbia-HTC). Each of the top 15 riders from stage 15 are in the top 20 overall. Contador, who leads by 1:37 over his teammate Armstrong, took the yellow jersey from Rinaldo Nocentini. Also within 2 minutes is Wiggins, who finished 124th in 2006 and withdrew in 2007, but is now third, just 1:46 back. Andy Schleck and the aforementioned Nocentini are each within 3 minutes, while Frank Schleck (Team Saxo Bank), Carlos Sastre, and Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Slipstream) are each within 4 minutes. Evans is 4:27 back, and Kirchen is 5:05 behind the leader.

Outlook: So far, the tour is shaping up in much the way we thought it would, with members of Astana holding 3 of the top 4 spots. They would likely have 4 of the top 5 if Levi Leipheimer had not crashed and broken his wrist, forcing him to withdraw. Contador and Armstrong are fairly solid bets to win at this point, and the biggest question is whether Astana will commit to one or the other in the Alps. Given how well they are doing, however, it may not be necessary - they each have great form, particularly Contador. Of those chasing them, Evans, Kirchen, Vande Velde, and Sastre are likely too far back to win without a virtuoso performance in the Alps, because it is unlikely they will make up any time to Contador or Armstrong in the last time trial. Wiggins has never had this much success, and it is unlikely he'll be able to keep up in the next few stages. Kloden, in fourth, is an Astana teammate of Contador and Armstrong, and will likely serve in a supporting role to them. So, that leaves fifth place Andy Schleck as the biggest threat to an Armstrong or Contador win. Schleck is one of the best climbers in the Tour, and if he can press Armstrong and Contador in the Alps, he could have a chance to wear yellow in Paris.