Tour de France - Post-Stage 8 Update

Just over a third of the way through the Tour de France, things are starting to fall in place. The time trial separated the good teams from the bad, and now the first two mountain stages have separated the GC contenders from the specialists - with one exception. The current leader, by six seconds over favorite Alberto Contador, is Rinaldo Nocentini, an Italian rider with Ag2r-La Mondiale in his first Tour de France. Despite being relatively unknown to the casual fan, Nocentini is an experienced rider and has had success in the last few years, such as a second place finish in the 2008 Paris-Nice, ahead of a number of riders in this year's and last year's Tour de France, including Cadel Evans. While it is unlikely he will hold the yellow jersey for many more stages, it is remarkable for a rider in his first Tour de France to be wearing yellow this late in the race. Other notable storylines include Mark Cavendish's continued dominance in sprint finishes, as well as the success of 24 year old Tony Martin, who sits in 7th in the GC standings and is wearing the white jersey. Now, on to a review of the GC contenders through the first eight stages.

Alberto Contador (Spain)
Astana (Kazakhstan)

The 2007 Tour winner and clear favorite entering this year's Tour de France, Contador currently sits in second place, 6 seconds behind the leader. On stage 7, the first mountain stage of this year's Tour, he attacked from the leaders' peloton near the finish. While he only finished 9th in the stage, he gained 15 (or more, in some cases) over the rest of the GC contenders. Despite missing last year's Tour due to Astana's doping-related ban, he gotten right back on the horse (or bike, as it may be).

Lance Armstrong (USA)
Astana (Kazakhstan)

Armstrong, competing in his first Tour de France since 2005, apparently hasn't lost a step - he's just 2 seconds behind his teammate Contador in third. Both Contador and Armstrong are in this position largely due to Astana's dominating win in the state 4 team time trial, gaining 18 seconds on the riders from Garmin-Slipstream, 40 seconds on the riders from Saxo Bank, and 59 seconds on the riders from Team Columbia. Following stage 4, Astana riders held the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th overall spots, and they continue to hold 4 of the top 6 places. What remains to be seen is, if push comes to shove, which rider the rest of Astana will put their weight behind - Contador or Armstrong.

Levi Leipheimer (USA)
Astana (Kazakhstan)

Leipheimer finished third overall in the 2007 Tour de France (with 3 other top 10 finishes), and in fourth in the 2009 Tour, he rounds out Astana's trio of contenders - which is to say, riders of the caliber that would enable them to contend, because the odds of Leipheimer winning with Armstrong and Contador on his team are slim. Nonetheless, he is just 39 seconds back from the leader after 8 stages.

Christian Vande Velde (USA)
Garmin-Slipstream (USA)

Last year's 5th-place finisher, Vande Velde has quietly hung with the leaders, and with Garmin-Slipstream's strong second place finish in the team time trial, he's in good position at 8th overall to move towards the top of the standings.

Andy Schleck (Luxembourg)
Team Saxo Bank (Denmark)

Now that last year's winner Carlos Sastre is no longer with the team, Andy Schleck is the top GC contender for Team Saxo Bank. Just 24 years old, he won the white jersey (given to the best young rider) in last year's Tour de France, and also in the 2007 Giro d'Italia. He could very well win his second white jersey in the Tour this year, sitting second in those standings, but certainly his focus has to be on the yellow jersey, after finishing 12th last year. He is currently 9th, right behind Vande Velde.

Vincenzo Nibali (Italy)
Liquigas (Italy)

Another young rider at 24 years old, Nibali is Liquigas' hope for the GC, and rounds out the top 10 behind Schleck. He finished 20th last year, but has a lot of potential, and finished 6th in the Tour of California this year - one spot ahead of Lance Armstrong. Whether he has the team to make a serious run at the overall remains to be seen, and he has competition from within his own team as well in the form of Roman Kreuziger.

Frank Schleck (Luxembourg)
Team Saxo Bank (Denmark)

In 13th place, Frank Schleck is expected to serve primarily as a support rider for his younger brother Andy, but he's an excellent rider in his own right. He finished 6th overall last year and held the yellow jersey for 2 stages, won the Tour of Luxembourg this year, and came in second in the Paris-Nice as well.

Roman Kreuziger (Czech Republic)
Liquigas (Italy)

Kreuziger, in 14th, is the other contender from Liquigas aside from Nibali, and is even younger than Nibali at 23. Kreuziger is one of the biggest up-and-comers in cycling, having won the Tour de Suisse last year and finishing 13th in the Tour de France.

Carlos Sastre (Spain)
Cervélo TestTeam (Switzerland)

Sastre is the defending champion, but he's by no means the favorite, and is just 16th right now. A good climber, he is nonetheless not the best time trialist (though he performed well above expectations in last year's Tour de France time trials), and on top of that, his new team offers him little support in his quest to repeat.

Cadel Evans (Australia)
Silence-Lotto (Belgium)

Evans has been the runner up twice, and surely would like to avoid that situation again. However, like Sastre, his team is not well equipped to support him in the mountains, and also hurt him in the team time trial. He is over 3 minutes back in 18th. He is a strong climber, but so are Schleck, Contador, and Armstrong (among others), and Evans is well back right now.

Kim Kirchen (Luxembourg)
Team Columbia-HTC (USA)

Kirchen, the two-time Luxembourg national time trial champion, finished in the top 10 in the Tour de France in both 2007 and 2008, and wore both the green and yellow jerseys in last year's Tour. He is a good all-around rider, but didn't have the power in the mountains to keep up with Sastre, Evans, and the Schlecks last year. He does have the support of one of the best (if not the best) teams in the Tour this year in Team Columbia-HTC, with experienced riders in George Hincapie, Bernhard Eisel, and Michael Rogers.

Denis Menchov (Russia)
Rabobank (Netherlands)

Menchov brings up the rear of the contenders, at 28 and over 5 minutes behind the leader. This year's Giro d'Itala winner and last year's fourth place finisher in the Tour de France, he lost a lot of time in both the individual and team time trials. His chances to win are extremely slim at this point, but a good performance in the mountains could get him back in the top 10.


Ranking Their Chances:
These are my rankings of the above contenders by likelihood that they end up with the yellow jersey in Paris:
1. Alberto Contador - If I were betting, I'd consider taking him over the field.
2. Lance Armstrong
3. Andy Schleck
4. Cadel Evans
5. Christian Vande Velde
6. Carlos Sastre
7. Kim Kirchen
8. Frank Schleck
9. Roman Kreuziger
10. Vincenzo Nibali
11. Levi Leipheimer
12. Denis Menchov