Monday Top 10: NFL Offseason Storylines (That don't involve Favre or Owens)

Ok, lets get this out of the way first: I don't mind Brett Favre - I think he's a fine quarterback and has had a better career than most - but he's had more farewell tours than KISS. As for Terrell Owens, watching news coverage on him is like being forced to watch the mini-series 10.5 -A giant disaster, and yet mind-bogglingly silly. So, here are the 10 NFL storylines that have most interested me this offseason, in reverse order (because apparently it builds suspense).

10. Matt Stafford in Detroit
One of the pitfalls of being selected first overall is that you usually end up with a team with few prospects for the next season. There are certainly exceptions, as the Miami Dolphins proved last year, but new GM Martin Mayhew was promoted from within, while Miami went out and got Bill Parcells to run the team for them. The Dolphins also made the playoffs on the arm of a smart, accurate veteran QB, while the Lions, in Stafford, have a rookie with a strong arm and a tendency to make bad decisions under pressure and force his passes. This is a team that needed to improve its pass protection (2nd most sacks allowed in 2008), but didn't take an offensive lineman until the seventh round! This is a team that's pretty much in total rebuild mode, but thought it prudent to take a tight end in the first round! Given the state of the economy, Detroit residents could use something to cheer about - but it won't be the Lions, and Stafford will spend too much time on his ass due to a subpar line and an invisible running game. (30th in the NFL last season with the fewest rushing first downs).

9. Green Bay Switches to a 3-4 Defense
When Green Bay hired Dom Capers, they made the decision to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. This in itself isn't that big a story - more than one team switched its offensive or defensive scheme this offseason. What makes this a story is that Green Bay did not, as many teams might be expected to do, half-ass the switch in terms of personnel. Instead, the Packers went out and took the best 3-4 NT and the best 3-4 OLB in the draft in B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews, respectively, and had, perhaps, the best draft in the NFL (Mel Kiper certainly thinks so). Their draft consisted of two offensive linemen, two defensive linemen, two linebackers, a cornerback, and a fullback. If that's not drafting to improve your team's guts, then I don't know what is - they've certainly got the skill position players already in place. On paper, they now have the defense they lacked last season. In particular, their linebacking corps appears to be absolutely nasty - Aaron Kampmann, A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett, and Clay Matthews.

8. Oakland's Draft
If Green Bay had arguably the best draft in 2009, Oakland probably had the worst. One of the biggest needs of the Raiders going into the draft was offensive line, and yet, all three of their offensive selections in the draft were spent on pass catchers - two wide receivers and a tight end. If you want to know what's wrong with the Raiders, look no further than this statistic: Of the 13 offensive players the Raiders have picked in the last three drafts, just one of them has been an offensive lineman. Nine were skill position players (the other 3 being two TEs and a FB), including 6 (6!) wide receivers. The four WRs they took in the last 2 years combined for just 43 receptions and 6 TDs. In the second round this year, they had the biggest reach of the draft for safety Mike Mitchell. While saftey was actually a need for them, the fact remains that they did not address their need at O-line anywhere in the draft, and pass defense was what the Raiders did best last year anyway. Their passing game was one of the worst in the NFL last season, and though their rushing yardage was good, they were in the bottom quarter of the league in rushing TDs, rushing first downs, and fumbles. A speedster wide receiver isn't going to fix the Raiders' offense.

7. Donte' Stallworth's DUI Manslaughter
With the NFL's sudden strictness regarding off-the-field conduct, and their zero-tolerance drug policy, it is shocking how lightly they seem to regard players who are charged and convicted of driving under the influence. The NFL routinely looks the other way for first time offenders, and even Jared Allen only received a 2 game suspension following his third DUI. According to the Washington Post, in 2006, 14 NFL players were arrested on DUI chargers (with one boating while intoxicated, courtesy of Eric Steinbach). As bad as this is, the leniency given by the state to NFL players who have killed while driving drunk is even more stunning. In 1998, Leonard Little plead guilty to DUI manslaughter after he killed 47 year old Susan Gutweiler driving home from a party, and received just 90 days in jail. Stallworth did him one better, and served just 24 days of a 30 day sentence. Countless "normal" folks have been sentenced to 10 or even 20 years in prison for the same offense, but apparently high-profile sports figures are judged by a different standard.

6. Scott Pioli in Kansas City
More than anyone else they've lost - whether it be Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, or any player - Scott Pioli will be monumentally difficult to replace. Winner of 2 straight Sporting News executive of the year awards, Pioli is, without a doubt, one of the best talent evaluators in the league. Whether the Patriots suffer from his loss is another issue for another day, but Pioli has already started to put his stamp on Kansas City, and he started by canning Herm "you play to win the game" Edwards. Pioli continued by making a number of significant free agency moves, many of which involved bringing in players he had experience with in New England, either as members of the Patriots or as division opponents. These moves largely served to reinforce a defense that was 31st in the league in yards last season, by adding experienced players like SS Mike Smith, LB Zach Thomas, and LB Monty Beisel. With their first two picks in the draft, Pioli shored up his team's defensive line by taking DE Tyson Jackson and DT Alex Magee with their first two picks. Perhaps his biggest move of the offseason, however, was a deal with his former team, sending the Chiefs' second round pick to the Patriots in exchange for QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel. By all appearances, Pioli has put in place the building blocks to a successful franchise.

5. Mark Sanchez in New York
To some, he's the next Joe Namath. To others, he's the next... uh... I'm going to go with Browning Nagle. In any case, while he wasn't the first QB taken, he may be the one with the most expectations. Unlike Stafford, whose Lions are a perennial doormat for whom a .500 season would be a resounding success, Sanchez is being thrust into the toughest media market in American sports, and asked to lead a team that's made the playoffs 4 of the last 8 years. In addition, the simple fact that the Jets traded 3 players and their top 2 draft picks to move up and take Sanchez is a huge weight on his shoulders, and speaks volumes to their faith in him to be the arm and the face of their franchise. Sanchez, for his part, certainly hasn't helped matters by posing for GQ Magazine - before he's even played in an NFL game. One thing is for certain: If he succeeds, he'll be a star in one of the biggest cities in the world, playing the most popular sport in the United States. If he busts, however, he will do so spectacularly.

4. Josh McDaniels in Denver
Like Scott Pioli, Josh McDaniels left the Patriots and Bill Belichick for a team in the AFC West. McDaniels, however, does not have nearly the level of experience Pioli has. At 33 years old, McDaniels was a coordinator for just 3 years and a position coach for just 2 years before that. In contrast, Bill Belichick, his mentor, spent 6 years as a coordinator and 8 years prior to that in a variety of position coaching positions. While Scott Pioli has garnered press this offseason for the players he's added, McDaniels is mostly getting attention for the player he traded away - Jay Cutler. In an April 2nd trade, McDaniels sent Cutler and a 5th round pick to Chicago for Kyle Orton, the Bears' first and third round picks this season, and the Bears' first round pick next season. Regardless of the potential benefits of the selections they gained, Orton is a marked step down from Cutler, one of the most promising young QBs in the league. Don't let his 21-12 record fool you into thinking he's a good qB - in 2005, he was 0-4 when his opponents scored at least 20 points, and is 5-12 in his career. His career completion percentage is an abysmal 55.3. His career QB rating? 71.1. Cutler is known more for his arm strength than his accuracy, and he still beats Orton's marks in those statistics by more than 10 points and 15 points, respectively. There are some QBs who don't put up pretty numbers, but help their teams win - Ben Roethlisberger comes to mind. Then there are other QBs who don't put up pretty numbers, and whose teams win in spite of them. That is Kyle Orton. That isn't the full extent of McDaniels' head-scratching decisions this offseason however - this is a man who signed 3 RBs in free agency, then picked a running back with his first pick in the NFL draft. That simply does not compute.

3. Colts Coaching Changes
The coaching changes with the biggest potential impact on the 2010 season, however, did not involve the Patriots, but rather, another perennial playoff team - the Indianapolis Colts. While Tony Dungy leaving was not a surprise - he'd had a foot out the door for several years, and his replacement (Jim Caldwell) had already been designated - the impact of his departure likely won't be fully known for several seasons. This, in and of itself, would not have justified inclusion in this list had it not been for what happened four months later. In May, it was announced that Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd, due to changes in the NFL's pension plan, would also be retiring immediately. Though both have been since been hired in a consultant's role with the team, they had been considered among the best at their respective jobs in the NFL, and the shakeup could have an effect on the Colts' offense, one of the best offenses in the NFL this decade. Moore and Mudd will be replaced by Clyde Christensen, the former assistant head coach and receivers coach, and Pete Metzelaars, former offensive quality control coach, respectively. In addition, Frank Reich (best known for leading Buffalo to the greatest comeback in NFL history against the Oilers in the 1992 playoffs) has been promoted to fill Caldwell's old position of quarterbacks coach.

2. Michael Vick
Everyone knows the details, so I won't dwell on the events leading up to Vick's arrest, conviction, and imprisonment. Since he was released, however, the debate on what his fate should be has become even more polarized. Some think that he ought to be reinstated, and that he's served his time - after all, if Leonard Little is playing, why shouldn't Vick be able to? Others think that he hasn't been punished sufficiently, and some even think he should be banned for life. Now, whether he should be banned for life or not, I find it more than a little confusing that so much hatred and bile should be directed toward's Vick, who spent almost a year and a half in jail for killing dogs (the heinousness of which I am not debating), while Donte' Stallworth, who served just 24 days for kiling a person, probably receives about a tenth of the outrage that Vick does. Right now, it appears that Vick will be one of the biggest names in the new UFL.

1. Tom Brady's Knee
Perhaps none of these stories has the potential to impact the 2009 NFL season to the same extent as the recovery of the ligaments that are holding together Tom Brady's knee. Two seasons ago, Brady set the single-season record for TD passes with 50, besting his rival Peyton Manning's 2004 number of 49, and threw for an (at that time) third-most yards in a season in NFL history. His personal achievements, however, were eclipsed by the unprecedented success of his team, as the Patriots completed a perfect regular season and came within one game of the greatest season in NFL history, losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. A healthy Brady means that the Patriots, with a traditionally strong defense and a couple of pro bowl receivers in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, are the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl. By all accounts, Brady's knee feels good. But some questions still linger. First, some QBs in the past who suffered the same injury as Brady have often had difficulty returning to the same level they were playing at before (such as Carson Palmer). Second, one has to wonder whether the rapport Brady had with his receivers two years ago will return - and how long it will take to do so. Two years ago, when the Patriots started out 18-0, you could tell that something was clicking, that the entire team was constantly on the same page. Will a year without Brady - a year where they missed the playoffs, though probably undeservedly so - cause the team to fall out of sync? Or will they return to their old ways and steamroll through the AFC to their 5th Super Bowl appearance of the decade? Time will tell.